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zkajan
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Israel readies forces for strike on nuclear Iran

SRAEL’S armed forces have been ordered by Ariel Sharon, the prime minister, to be ready by the end of March for possible strikes on secret uranium enrichment sites in Iran, military sources have revealed.

The order came after Israeli intelligence warned the government that Iran was operating enrichment facilities, believed to be small and concealed in civilian locations.

Iran’s stand-off with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) over nuclear inspections and aggressive rhetoric from Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, the Iranian president, who said last week that Israel should be moved to Europe, are causing mounting concern.

The crisis is set to come to a head in early March, when Mohamed El-Baradei, the head of the IAEA, will present his next report on Iran. El-Baradei, who received the Nobel peace prize yesterday, warned that the world was “losing patience” with Iran.

A senior White House source said the threat of a nuclear Iran was moving to the top of the international agenda and the issue now was: “What next?” That question would have to be answered in the next few months, he said.

Defence sources in Israel believe the end of March to be the “point of no return” after which Iran will have the technical expertise to enrich uranium in sufficient quantities to build a nuclear warhead in two to four years.

“Israel — and not only Israel — cannot accept a nuclear Iran,” Sharon warned recently. “We have the ability to deal with this and we’re making all the necessary preparations to be ready for such a situation.”

The order to prepare for a possible attack went through the Israeli defence ministry to the chief of staff. Sources inside special forces command confirmed that “G” readiness — the highest stage — for an operation was announced last week.

Gholamreza Aghazadeah, head of the Atomic Organisation of Iran, warned yesterday that his country would produce nuclear fuel. “There is no doubt that we have to carry out uranium enrichment,” he said.

He promised it would not be done during forthcoming talks with European negotiators. But although Iran insists it wants only nuclear energy, Israeli intelligence has concluded it is deceiving the world and has no intention of giving up what it believes is its right to develop nuclear weapons.

A “massive” Israeli intelligence operation has been underway since Iran was designated the “top priority for 2005”, according to security sources.

Cross-border operations and signal intelligence from a base established by the Israelis in northern Iraq are said to have identified a number of Iranian uranium enrichment sites unknown to the the IAEA.

Since Israel destroyed the Osirak nuclear reactor in Iraq in 1981, “it has been understood that the lesson is, don’t have one site, have 50 sites”, a White House source said.

If a military operation is approved, Israel will use air and ground forces against several nuclear targets in the hope of stalling Tehran’s nuclear programme for years, according to Israeli military sources.

It is believed Israel would call on its top special forces brigade, Unit 262 — the equivalent of the SAS — and the F-15I strategic 69 Squadron, which can strike Iran and return to Israel without refuelling.

“If we opt for the military strike,” said a source, “it must be not less than 100% successful. It will resemble the destruction of the Egyptian air force in three hours in June 1967.”

Aharon Zeevi Farkash, the Israeli military intelligence chief, stepped up the pressure on Iran this month when he warned Israel’s parliament, the Knesset, that “if by the end of March the international community is unable to refer the Iranian issue to the United Nations security council, then we can say the international effort has run its course”.

The March deadline set for military readiness also stems from fears that Iran is improving its own intelligence-gathering capability. In October it launched its first satellite, the Sinah-1, which was carried by a Russian space launcher.

“The Iranians’ space programme is a matter of deep concern to us,” said an Israeli defence source. “If and when we launch an attack on several Iranian targets, the last thing we need is Iranian early warning received by satellite.”

Russia last week signed an estimated $1 billion contract — its largest since 2000 — to sell Iran advanced Tor-M1 systems capable of destroying guided missiles and laser-guided bombs from aircraft.

“Once the Iranians get the Tor-M1, it will make our life much more difficult,” said an Israeli air force source. “The installation of this system can be relatively quick and we can’t waste time on this one.”

The date set for possible Israeli strikes on Iran also coincides with Israel’s general election on March 28, prompting speculation that Sharon may be sabre-rattling for votes.

Benjamin Netanyahu, the frontrunner to lead Likud into the elections, said that if Sharon did not act against Iran, “then when I form the new Israeli government, we’ll do what we did in the past against Saddam’s reactor, which gave us 20 years of tranquillity”.

TEHRAN MINISTER MET MILITANTS BEFORE NEW OFFENSIVE

Iran’s foreign minister met leading figures from three Islamic militant groups to co-ordinate a united front against Israel days before a recent escalation of attacks against Israeli targets shattered fragile ceasefires with Lebanon and the Palestinians, writes Hugh Macleod in Damascus.

The minister, Manouchehr Mottaki, held talks with leaders of Hamas, Islamic Jihad and Hezbollah in Damascus on November 15.

Among those who attended the meeting were Khaled Meshaal, the Hamas leader, and a deputy leader of Islamic Jihad, which claimed responsibility for last Monday’s suicide bombing of a shopping mall in Netanya that killed five Israeli citizens.

Ahmed Jibril, leader of the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine- General Command, was also present. “We all confirmed that what is going on in occupied Palestine is organically connected to what is going on in Iraq, Syria, Iran and Lebanon,” said Jibril.

Seven days after the talks, Hezbollah fired a volley of rockets and mortars at Israeli targets, sparking the fiercest fighting between the two sides since Israel’s withdrawal from south Lebanon five years ago.
Bar-Aram
If true, and not just rumors, then GREAT!!!
Dakyron
I dont doubt that Israel will do so after the remarks of the Iranian government recently(and in the past)...

Its also a good bargaining chip for Europe/US to imply w/o actually saying it. "Best to save face and go for the negotiated solution now rather than risk being slapped around by Israel later"
Telum
Im wondering if Iran will have the guts to strike back.
Bar-Aram
They will make poor Lebanese Shia Muslim farmers do it for them.
Dakyron
It will hurt Israeli-Pal peace movement, thats for sure... as undoubtedly, as BA alludes to, Iran will attempt to use terrorism as a way of reprisal...
Raider
at least sharon has balls since bush doesn't seem to...
Christian
If Israel does this you will have problem with: 1. EU, 2. Russia. 3.Syria, 4.Iran (they have missiles and planes themselves). 5. Pakistan

Anti-Israel emotions will explode in EU, the leaders in EU will be forced to withdraw the freetrade treaty with Israel (both out of legal concerns and public demands, Israeli ambassadors will be called before governaments to explain there actions)

A gigantic military aid program might be sent from Russia to Iran, giving them even more tecnology to use for weapons and possiably nuclear programs.

Pakistan will protest and if it ecalets to full scale war between Israel and Iran Pakistan will deter Israel from using Nukes with statement saying they will retaliate with there own nukes if Israel launches against Iran.

If israel by some stupid reason uses nukes EU will with draw all support whatsoever......

Its a recipe for disaster to attack Iran.
Bar-Aram
It's a recipe for disaster to not attack Iran.
LordLeto
QUOTE(Christian @ Dec 13 2005, 08:12 AM)
If Israel does this you will have problem with: 1. EU, 2. Russia. 3.Syria, 4.Iran (they have missiles and planes themselves). 5. Pakistan

Anti-Israel emotions will explode in EU, the leaders in EU will be forced to withdraw the freetrade treaty with Israel (both out of legal concerns and public demands, Israeli ambassadors will be called before governaments to explain there actions)

A gigantic military aid program might be sent from Russia to Iran, giving them even more tecnology to use for weapons and possiably nuclear programs.

Pakistan will protest and if it ecalets to full scale war between Israel and Iran Pakistan will deter Israel from using Nukes with statement saying they will retaliate with there own nukes if Israel launches against Iran.

If israel by some stupid reason uses nukes EU will with draw all support whatsoever......

Its a recipe for disaster to attack Iran.



Wow, thats some grade A bullshit your spouting there. laugh.gif
Ryan_Liam
There should be a MAD strategy in the Middle East as there was in the Cold war. If Iran has nukes then so be it, but the way in which to destroy the clerical regime of Iran is from the inside, and provide a healthy deterrent.

These are reasons as to why Israel or Iran won't attack each other.
Telum
QUOTE(Ryan_Liam @ Dec 13 2005, 06:13 PM)
There should be a MAD strategy in the Middle East as there was in the Cold war. If Iran has nukes then so be it, but the way in which to destroy the clerical regime of Iran is from the inside, and provide a healthy deterrent.

These are reasons as to why Israel or Iran won't attack each other.



And what if the Ayatollah wakes up one day and decides today is a good day to greet Allah? MAD only works when you have rational people in power.
Ryan_Liam
QUOTE
And what if the Ayatollah wakes up one day and decides today is a good day to greet Allah? MAD only works when you have rational people in power.


Because there will always be people on both sides who'll practise restraint and will go to lengths to do just that. Besides, since Iran economically is better off than it was in the 80's, there's more to lose now than their was then, plus the Clerics don't want to see their position of power threatened by actually carrying out (openly) the threats they make to boost their popularity.

Notice the words Ahmedijad said, Israel should be wiped off the map, if he was intent on doing that he would of worded it something along the lines of 'Israel will be wiped off the map' you see? The wording gave enough manuver onto which if he failed to keep his promise, he can then declare it was an undesired outcome, not the intended one.
Christian
QUOTE
Wow, thats some grade A bullshit your spouting there. 



Care to explain why??
Flyer_Bear
QUOTE(Christian @ Dec 15 2005, 04:44 PM)
Care to explain why??



Your entire post can be summed up with one word:

Posturing
necrolyte
QUOTE(Telum @ Dec 14 2005, 02:57 AM)
And what if the Ayatollah wakes up one day and decides today is a good day to greet Allah?  MAD only works when you have rational people in power.



The Ayatollahs are VERY rational people. They have a hardcore theological outlook, however that does not make them beyond rational thought. Stalin was also a rational man, as was Mao. However, both had serious issues regarding paranoia and megalomania. Rational thought prevented WWIII from being started on their parts.

Castro, however, was willing to start WWIII, because his rationality had lost out to an emotional attatchment to his vision. We know that this has not occured with Iran.

BTW hitting Iran with bombers would be harder than hitting Iraq, and I would be more worried about possible instability in Iraq as a result.
Russian
QUOTE
The Ayatollahs are VERY rational people. They have a hardcore theological outlook, however that does not make them beyond rational thought. Stalin was also a rational man, as was Mao. However, both had serious issues regarding paranoia and megalomania. Rational thought prevented WWIII from being started on their parts.




lol
Bar-Aram
QUOTE(necrolyte @ Dec 16 2005, 01:21 PM)
The Ayatollahs are VERY rational people. They have a hardcore theological outlook, however that does not make them beyond rational thought. Stalin was also a rational man, as was Mao. However, both had serious issues regarding paranoia and megalomania. Rational thought prevented WWIII from being started on their parts.

Castro, however, was willing to start WWIII, because his rationality had lost out to an emotional attatchment to his vision. We know that this has not occured with Iran.

BTW hitting Iran with bombers would be harder than hitting Iraq, and I would be more worried about possible instability in Iraq as a result.



Have you been listening to some of the stuff the current president has been saying (even aside from the "Israel needs to be wiped out" and "the holocaust is a myth" crap)? He makes Qaddafi seem remarkably sane in comparison, and that's an accomplishment to be sure. Of course, the ultimate power, as poor Khatami and his supporters know well by now, lies with the top clerics, but so far they have supported his policies.




And I also think the Syrian regime should be bombed.
necrolyte
He may say a lot of nutty shit, but its doubtful that he will act on it.
Bar-Aram
The guy seriously thinks the world is about to end. I think he will act on it.








And I also think the Syrian regime should be bombed.
Telum
Syria delenda est?
Bar-Aram
Something like that. Especially after their vile ambassador to the UN, Faysal Mokdad, refered to their latest victim in Lebanon, Jubran Tueini, as "a dog". Jubran's father, Ghassan Tueni, is now suing Mokdad over the comment





And I also think the Syrian regime should be bombed.
QWOT
QUOTE(Christian @ Dec 15 2005, 08:44 AM)
Care to explain why??


One word: Osirak

If anything, Israel will likely get more support than it did 25 years ago. I'd be very surprised if Iraq (i.e the U.S. occupation forces) denied them overflight permission, and absolutely shocked if the U.S. occupiers actually fired on the Israeli aircraft.
necrolyte
QUOTE
And I also think the Syrian regime should be bombed.


And I think Carthage must be destroyed!
-Senator Cato
Dragonspirit
QUOTE
If anything, Israel will likely get more support than it did 25 years ago. I'd be very surprised if Iraq (i.e the U.S. occupation forces) denied them overflight permission, and absolutely shocked if the U.S. occupiers actually fired on the Israeli aircraft.


The US and Iraq won't fire or deny them airspace. However, Israel will not get support from many of those that will benefit from it.

The European Union will condemn the action from the safety just bought for them from Israel, just as they failed to stop Iran from going nuclear and even helped create the tolerance for them to do so.
Harry Kewell
With Sharon on death's door, who will have the balls to give the order?
zkajan
QUOTE(Harry Kewell @ Jan 6 2006, 11:22 AM)
With Sharon on death's door, who will have the balls to give the order?


i'm sure there will be some other jew more then willing tongue.gif
gnuneo
OMFG - the peron i most agree with is ryan.

how the fucking hell has THAT happened? ohmy.gif ohmy.gif ohmy.gif

isreal is rattling sabres, they may have overriding power in the region (thanks to mindblowing amounts of american money), but they simply don't have the resources to attack iran comprehensively, especially as it seems iran now has satellite surveilance to give warning of an attack.

unless iran suddenly goes batshit crazy, they should have 'the bomb' before the US can muster up the support to capture *their* oilfields as well.

oh, of course i mean to say "liberate the iyraynians from their oppressive leaders by slaughtering 10s of thousands of them".


and i agree with necro - the president may have his own religious thing going, but the ayatollahs will reign him in. Does no-one else seem flabbergasted the way the isrealis can openly talk about their *EQUALLY ILLEGAL* nukes and dropping them on people they don't like, yet the other side is assumed to be too far gone to be trusted with such weaponry *BY THE ISREALIS*, and the western media don't even smudge their eyeliner over it.

Christian
Well one reson to why Israel wont attack or atleast would never be able to win a war is becuse of psycological effects on there own population.


Here is a nice article for you (its 19 pages long and quite good), on the subject of PSYOPS, in the article its about how it works as propaganda and Israel vs Hezbollah is taken as example, (basicaly becuse Hezbollah came up with a new twist to it, ie; video tape everything and broadcast the "good" stuff)


It will give you a perspective to a number of events in the world today and on how nations and organizations use propaganda...


its writen by a person from Israel. (its PDF as attachment)
gnuneo
christian: i'm sure its a truly brilliant peice of scholarly study, which in its eloquence will pick us up from our dreary mental ruts and fling us to dance in the stars with the new, mindblowing understanding we will recieve from it.

but, urrmm - where is it? linky?
Christian
It is in some extent, hmm i tried that nice little new gimmick called attachments, but dont seems to work on this bord.....

I got it downloaded as a PDF file, becuse the its taken from a paper that the University pays for, so i dont know if you can acces it normally..

But i think this link will take you to it... (the pdf-file is in the right Box)

http://journalsonline.tandf.co.uk.lt.ltag....ults,1:102492,1
gnuneo
xian: we need to "log on" to your uni server...?
Christian
Ahh.. i se know..... (i loged on and thought it worked whitout logging, if i linked the page..)


Do you have an e mail or can some Mod fix the whole attachment think here on Up?
QWOT
gnuneo,

Nobody's talking about a full-scale invasion of Iran by Israel, or even a wide-scale bombing. The likely scenario is an Osirak-style strike focused on very precisely targeted facilities critical to creating the materials for a nuclear weapon or the weapon itself.

Of course, Iran has probably learned a bit from the Osirak strike of 1981 and will have distributed its facilities across the country; but IMHO the Israelis could probably deal a heavy blow to the Iranian weapons program that will delay it significantly.
Flyer_Bear
We can only hope.
Bar-Aram
You know, they shouldn't bomb the nuclear facilities. Too difficult, too risky, they can rebuild them as long as they have the know-how and backing from Russia and China which means we only delay the inevitable, and they may not get all the necessary targets.

A much better idea is a massive decapitation strike that completely takes out the current Iranian regime. That's president, ministers, parliament, clerics, and military chief of staffs. Seriously. For most of those it is well known where they live and where they work, and the parliament can be taken out in one strike while in session. Shouldn't be difficult. smile.gif


Unfortunately, this will never happen.
Christian
You are crazy Bar-aram.

You do know that this would break a lot of international laws and customs dont you?

witch would mean Iran would get a massive support if it was done.
Bar-Aram
That's why I said it wouldn't happen.

And I was trolling.


But on the whole, I am actually right.
Ryan_Liam
QUOTE
A much better idea is a massive decapitation strike that completely takes out the current Iranian regime. That's president, ministers, parliament, clerics, and military chief of staffs. Seriously. For most of those it is well known where they live and where they work, and the parliament can be taken out in one strike while in session. Shouldn't be difficult.


Unfortunately, this will never happen.


You are right, however I take on an approach of us just undermining their ideals by importing gucci and prada knock offs en masse. If Western Culture and ideals permeat everything (which is in turn a good by product) we should just do that. Iran is in a situation where they thought religious government would be good, but since the system has taken a life of it's own, it imprisons them all. All of them stuck on the 'wild horse' afraid to be thrown off.

That approach satisfies two of my objectives, bringing down the mullahocracy in Iran, and secondly, my chances of getting laid by a attractive Iranian woman who most likely won't hate the West much more closer biggrin.gif

Bar-Aram
QUOTE(Ryan_Liam @ Jan 15 2006, 01:50 AM)
That approach satisfies two of my objectives, bringing down the mullahocracy in Iran, and secondly, my chances of getting laid by a attractive Iranian woman who most likely won't hate the West much more closer biggrin.gif



No, it will hurt your chances for the latter. Right now there is actually quite a few of those here in the west (my dentist, for example), but if the former happens then some of them will return to Iran.
Christian
Why are people so afraid of other cultures?

Why must we "westernize" the world?

If we only gets one culture how fun will it be to travel if its all the same everywhere?....
Bar-Aram
Because right now there is only one culture in the world that stands for freedom and tolerance.

The fact that it happens to be "western" right now is not the issue. Those values belong equally to everyone, if only they would accept them.


It's not about things like what kind of food you eat, how nd to what you pray (or if you do at all), what kind of music you make or enjoy, what kind of art you have, what language you speak, what customs and so on.


Edit:

I think this, that I posted elsewhere earlier, is omewhat relevant here:


From Albert Habib Hourani's (an 'Arab Nationalist') book "Syria and Lebanon" published in 1946:


QUOTE
iv. Arab nationalism is still an unformed movement and has not yet decided its attitude towards the West. There are two paths which it can follow, which may be called those of 'excommunication' from and of 'communion' with the West. The movement may become primarily one of opposition to the West, borrowing only the technical skill of Europe and America in order the better to resist both the encroachments of Western States and the challenge of the Western spirit. It may, on the other hand, become a movement for the reconstruction of Arab society through a fundamental assimilation of the best elements in Western life (although not necessarily by imitation of them); in this task the help of Western Governments and peoples will be essential.

For the sake both of the Arabs and of the West, it is essential that the nationalist movement should take the second of these paths. If it takes the first, it will become impossible to establish a 'healthy' relationship with Europe, and nationalism itself will turn into a purposeless movement of hatred and fanaticism. This will distort not only the political development of the Arabs, but their life in all its aspects.
Christian
QUOTE
Because right now there is only one culture in the world that stands for freedom and tolerance


Freedome and tollerance, really?

-Guantanamo, fair trials for inmates, a trial for inmates?, getting the inmates a lawyer?.. etc

-The Us adventures in south america during the 80s
- US war on iraq in violation of article 2:4 and 2:7 of the UN charter
-US war in Vietnam?
-French state terrorism against NGOs ex bombed greenpeace ship rainbow warrior..
-US tells its news media to hold stories for 6 months becuse they are bad for the governament..

Then we have the globalization development and problems of western design.....

So no we are not Tolerant and not as free as we would like to think, not now when Both USA and EU has put up extra laws to monitor our daily actions.

- Monotoring our calls with cellphones, time, possition at the begining and end, who we call.
- Internet, all companys must save our Ips for 24 months and they can be used for any criminal charge from filesharing- to organized crime.

So our freedome are shrinking fast, and the little police state are comming more and more and people dosnt pay attention becuse everything is ok with telling them its becuse we must fight the terrorist (sweden has never had problems with terrorists, but it was a swede who invented the letter bomb..)

We allso have a new law from 1 january that gives the police the right to take DNA from more or less anyone, you dont need to be a suspect in a crime, it is ok if you are "associated" with the person or organization that is a suspect.

but associated is a Very skittering word..
Bar-Aram
QUOTE(Christian @ Jan 17 2006, 10:03 AM)
Freedome and tollerance, really?



Yes, more so than anywhere else in the world, and more so than anywhere at any time in history ever.
Christian
Really.......

But some countries are more free them other here in the west so should sweden blow up USA or Italy becuse thay arnt as free as we are?

And why do we and US support regimes in other parts of the world that is not a shread "free" or "tolerant"?

Why do we belive we have the right to support some "bad" regimes but not all?

And who are the ones to take these decitions?
Ryan_Liam
QUOTE
Really.......

But some countries are more free them other here in the west so should sweden blow up USA or Italy becuse thay arnt as free as we are?


I am sick to death of this ridiculous analogies you spout, stop please with your revisionism.

QUOTE
And why do we and US support regimes in other parts of the world that is not a shread "free" or "tolerant"?


Because it cannot remove every tyranny from the globe asshole, but maybe with more support it could.

QUOTE
Why do we belive we have the right to support some "bad" regimes but not all? And who are the ones to take these decitions?


Because given the circumstances, it's better to take out certain regimes and generate substantial change, rather than taking them all out and not gaining anything of worth.

Duh.



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